THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN TRADE INDICATORS ON THE GROWTH OF THE IRAQI ECONOMY

Abstract

The study aims to analyze and measure the impact of the economic efficiency indicators of foreign trade, represented by six indicators (export importance indicator, import importance indicator, economic participation degree indicator, trade openness indicator, coverage rate indicator, and per capita share of foreign trade indicator) on economic growth, which was expressed (in GDP) in Iraq during the period (2004-2022). The study also started from the hypothesis that there is a direct impact and a positive relationship between the economic efficiency indicators of foreign trade on economic growth, but the size of this impact varies from one indicator to another according to the nature and type of each indicator. In order to achieve the study's goal and prove its hypothesis, the analytical method was used to analyze the trends of efficiency indicators and economic growth and the relationship between them, in addition to the quantitative method to determine the type and size of the impact between each efficiency variable and economic growth. The time series data were relied upon and divided into quarterly and after conducting a set of standard tests starting with the stability test by Phelps-Berron, it was found that all variables after taking the first difference became stationary, which is consistent with the (ARDL) methodology. In addition, a set of diagnostic tests were conducted for standard problems, and they all confirmed that the estimated model was free of standard problems. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which was that the relationship between the variables in the long run was inverse between (the export importance index, the import importance index, and the economic participation index) and the gross domestic product. The study also recommended a set of proposals, the most important of which is for the Iraqi government to increase its interest in the foreign trade sector and develop its export structure in a way that ensures the development of its economic efficiency indicators for sustainability and increasing its revenues to achieve economic growth. Keywords: Economic efficiency, foreign trade, economic growth