ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING OF LIGHT CAR IMPORTS TO UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

This article studies the issue of forecasting the volume of passenger car imports to the Republic of Uzbekistan based on time series. Developing reliable forecasts for car imports is of urgent importance for the country's economic stability, maintaining market balance and effective management of import policy. The study used statistical data collected on an annual basis for the period 2010–2023, and the ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average) model was used to analyze them. The stationarity of the time series was checked using the Dickey-Fuller and extended ADF tests. The results of the study made it possible to identify the seasonal and cyclical characteristics of changes in car imports, as well as to formulate statistically sound forecasts. Based on the choice of the ARMA model, the accuracy of the parameters and the forecasting capabilities, recommendations were developed for optimizing import policy. This approach serves as an important source of information for economic policymakers, investors and business entities in making strategic decisions.