INFLUENCE OF THE AGRARIAN SPHERE ON MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Abstract

The article is based on a dissertation research and is devoted to the econometric modeling of the influence of the agrarian sector on the key macroeconomic indicators of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The study examines the theoretical and methodological foundations of such modeling, including the international classification of agricultural activities (IFUT-2) and the legal framework for the formation of macroeconomic statistics. The developed econometric models show that a 1% growth in agriculture leads to an increase in employment by 1.8% and a decrease in inflation by 0.16%. Furthermore, a long-term cointegration relationship between the sector's value-added and exports has been identified. Based on the analysis, forecast scenarios for the development of the agrarian sector until 2027 are proposed, and practical recommendations for increasing its efficiency and impact on the national economy are formulated.