THE IMPACT OF STRATEGIC SCENARIOS AND THEIR IMPORTANCE IN STRATEGIC THINKING OF TOURISM ORGANIZATIONS: AN ANALYTICAL STUDY AT THE IRAQI TOURISM AUTHORITY

Abstract

This study aims to explore the influence of strategic scenarios on strategic thinking in tourism organizations and specifically within the Iraqi Tourism Authority (ITA) as a unit of analysis Three dimensions operationalize strategic scenarios—exploratory, normative and predictive—and they define the essence of strategic thinking comprising strategic intent, thinking in time and seizing opportunities. This study had a descriptive-analytical approach by using census sampling of 102 ITA employees. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) using AMOS V.26 for construct validity confirmed that the SS loadings were 0.571–0.798; ST loadings were 0.647–0.802; CFI was > 0.90 and RMSEA was < 0.08 Reliability was assessed via Cronbach's Alpha (α = 0.772–0.898) and Spearman-Brown split-half coefficient (r = 0.883). The descriptive statistics confirmed moderate–good levels of strategic scenarios (M = 3.625, 72.50%) and strategic thinking (M = 3.533, 70.65%). Results of simple linear regression identified a statistically significant effect of strategic scenarios on strategic thinking (β = 0.855, R² = 0.626, F = 167.179, p < 0.001) with support for all four hypotheses in this analysis The authors conclude that strategic capabilities are both embryonic and fragmented in the ITA and propose institutionalizing scenario planning within formal bounded rationality.